Hungary's paradox opens the story

Of all the findings in this dataset, one stands out immediately: Hungary reported an average of just 1.37 bidders per award — the lowest of any country in the sample — yet its single-bid share was only 13.2%, among the lowest recorded. That combination is arithmetically possible only if a large proportion of contests attracted exactly two bidders. It is a statistical curiosity that illustrates why no single metric tells the full story of procurement competition, and why the composite competitiveness score (which weighs both dimensions) placed Hungary at 53 out of 100 — well below the EU median.

The country rankings

Based on 23,015 Hungarian awards where bid counts were reported (68.3% coverage), the average-bidder figure is among the more reliable in the dataset. At the other extreme, Bulgaria topped the average-bidder table at 2,070 bidders per award across 53,743 reporting awards (64.2% coverage) — a figure so far above any other country that it warrants caution; extreme outlier contests or data-entry anomalies in national systems can inflate national averages significantly.

Setting Bulgaria aside, Ireland reported the next highest average at 203.98 bidders (12,478 awards, 63.6% coverage), followed by Portugal at 127.9 (17,538 awards, 61.1% coverage). Both figures are similarly susceptible to skew from a small number of very large open competitions.

Among the larger, more stable distributions, France (21.32 average bidders, 166,976 awards, 70.1% coverage), Sweden (13.05, 39,953 awards, 71.6% coverage), and Germany (12.91, 199,603 awards, 66.1% coverage) occupied the upper-middle tier. Sweden and Finland (12.29 average bidders, 28,184 awards, 70.7% coverage) also posted the joint-highest competitiveness scores in the dataset at 94.

At the lower end, Poland recorded an average of 2.89 bidders and a single-bid rate of 46.2% across 259,731 reporting awards (77.4% coverage) — the highest single-bid share of any EU member state in the sample and one of the largest award volumes, making it a statistically robust finding. Greece reached 46.0% single-bid across 14,541 awards (61.8% coverage), placing it alongside Poland as a market where nearly half of reported contracts attracted no competition at all.

The sector rankings

Construction work (CPV division 45) achieved the highest competitiveness score of any sector at 95, combining an average of 11.1 bidders with a single-bid rate of just 10.9% across 184,953 awards — the largest country-level sample in the sector data (58.6% coverage). Architectural and engineering services (CPV 71) followed at 93, with a notably high average of 40.47 bidders across 129,337 awards (66.6% coverage).

At the bottom of the sector table, collected and purified water (CPV 41) scored 32, with an average of 1.19 bidders and a single-bid rate of 48.2% — though this rests on only 380 reporting awards (60.5% coverage) and should be read with caution. Services related to the oil and gas industry (CPV 76) scored 33, also on a small base of 542 awards.

More consequential by volume is the medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, and personal care sector (CPV 33), which recorded 449,124 reporting awards (83.0% coverage, the highest in the sector dataset) with an average of 2.9 bidders and a single-bid rate of 33.3% — a competitiveness score of 59. Given the scale of public health procurement, that level of limited competition warrants attention from contracting authorities and oversight bodies alike.

Software and information systems (CPV 48) posted a single-bid rate of 41.1% (23,004 awards, 65.6% coverage), and laboratory, optical, and precision equipment (CPV 38) reached 48.3% — the highest single-bid share of any sector with a substantial award count (28,719 awards, 69.2% coverage).

Single-bid procurement as a governance signal

A single-bid award is not automatically a sign of wrongdoing or poor process. Highly specialised requirements, thin supplier markets, and framework agreements can all produce legitimate sole-response outcomes. But at the scale observed here — nearly half of Polish and Greek reported awards, and nearly half of laboratory equipment contracts across the EU — the aggregate pattern is a governance signal that procurement supervisory bodies, national audit institutions, and the European Court of Auditors have consistently flagged as a risk indicator.

Methodology note

All data are drawn from TED (Tenders Electronic Daily, the EU's official procurement journal), covering awards published from January 2023 onwards. Bid counts are disclosed on a minority of contract award notices; the bid_coverage_pct figure for each row indicates what share of awards in that group reported a bid count. Coverage ranged from 39.4% (North Macedonia) to 88.8% (Estonia) at country level, and from 56.0% (administration and defence services, CPV 75) to 83.0% (medical equipment, CPV 33) at sector level. Countries with fewer than 200 reporting awards and sectors with fewer than 100 were excluded. Average bid counts are means and are sensitive to high-value outliers; competitiveness scores are composite indices combining both average bid count and single-bid share. All figures should be treated as indicative of reported patterns rather than exhaustive market characterisations.